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Games run 1 to 10, strongest first . #1 is where the model is most confident the goals, corners and cards will land; #10 is the one to be wary of. The number next to each game (0–100) is that confidence. A guide, not a guarantee — always check the odds yourself.
Last weekend — did our picks land?
18/30 landed
Each metric shows the suggested pick (over / under
+ line) → the actual number in the match. ✓ = the pick won.
FRI 04 SEP
Ipswich 0–2 Liverpool
Goals Over 2.5 → 2Corners Over 9.5 → 7Cards Over 3.5 → 4
SAT 05 SEP
Newcastle 2–2 Bournemouth
Goals Over 2.5 → 4Corners Over 10.5 → 7Cards Under 4.5 → 6
SAT 05 SEP
Brentford 1–1 Sunderland
Goals Under 3.5 → 2Corners Under 8.5 → 7Cards Over 3.5 → 5
SAT 05 SEP
Brighton 1–1 Leeds
Goals Over 1.5 → 2Corners Over 8.5 → 13Cards Over 3.5 → 6
SAT 05 SEP
Fulham 2–3 C Palace
Goals Over 1.5 → 5Corners Over 8.5 → 8Cards Over 2.5 → 0
SAT 05 SEP
Man City 1–0 Coventry
Goals Over 2.5 → 1Corners Over 9.5 → 9Cards Over 2.5 → 3
SAT 05 SEP
Nottm Forest 0–0 Spurs
Goals Under 3.5 → 0Corners Over 9.5 → 12Cards Over 3.5 → 4
SAT 05 SEP
Hull 0–0 Aston Villa
Goals Under 3.5 → 0Corners Over 8.5 → 7Cards Over 3.5 → 2
SUN 06 SEP
Everton 2–2 Man United
Goals Over 2.5 → 4Corners Over 8.5 → 7Cards Over 2.5 → 6
SUN 06 SEP
Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea
Goals Over 2.5 → 3Corners Over 10.5 → 8Cards Over 3.5 → 6
Model accuracy — season to date
67%
60 of 90 suggested goal / corner /
card picks landed. Bars below: each metric, then week by week.
21 28 04
MOST GOALS
Top pick
Man United v Man City
over 2.5
MOST CORNERS
Top pick
Man United v Man City
over 10.5
MOST CARDS
Top pick
Chelsea v Hull
over 4.5
Order: strongest first
01
65
Liverpoolv Fulham
SAT 12 SEP · 15:00TOP PICK
Liverpool 2.24 xG · 6.11 cnr · 2.05 yc
Fulham 1.13 xG · 4.92 cnr · 1.80 yc
Bet builder legs
Over 2.5 match goals Both teams to score Over 10.5 match corners (model 11.0) Over 3.5 total cards (model 4.0)
02
59
Manchester Unitedv Manchester City
SUN 13 SEP · 16:30
Man United 1.29 xG · 4.76 cnr · 1.64 yc
Man City 2.09 xG · 6.42 cnr · 1.67 yc
Bet builder legs
Over 2.5 match goals Both teams to score Over 10.5 match corners (model 11.0) Over 2.5 total cards (model 3.5)
03
57
Chelseav Hull City
SAT 12 SEP · 15:00
Promoted side involved — thin top-flight data, lower confidence.
Red-card watch: both sides among the most-carded last season.
Chelsea 1.72 xG · 5.95 cnr · 2.42 yc
Hull 1.11 xG · 4.1 cnr · 2.23 yc
Bet builder legs
Over 1.5 match goals Both teams to score Over 9.5 match corners (model 10.0) Over 4.5 total cards (model 4.5) A red card shown (both sides card-heavy last season)
04
56
AFC Bournemouthv Brentford
SAT 12 SEP · 15:00
Bournemouth 1.32 xG · 5.58 cnr · 2.44 yc
Brentford 1.47 xG · 4.79 cnr · 2.07 yc
Bet builder legs
Over 1.5 match goals Both teams to score Over 9.5 match corners (model 10.5) Over 4.5 total cards (model 4.5)
05
41
Coventry Cityv Brighton & Hove Albion
SUN 13 SEP · 14:00
Promoted side involved — thin top-flight data, lower confidence.
Coventry 0.77 xG · 4.3 cnr · 1.83 yc
Brighton 1.92 xG · 4.87 cnr · 2.38 yc
Bet builder legs
Over 1.5 match goals Over 8.5 match corners (model 9.0) Over 3.5 total cards (model 4.0)
06
38
Leeds Unitedv Newcastle United
MON 14 SEP · 20:00
Leeds 1.32 xG · 4.42 cnr · 1.54 yc
Newcastle 1.26 xG · 6.05 cnr · 2.06 yc
Bet builder legs
Over 1.5 match goals Over 9.5 match corners (model 10.5) Over 3.5 total cards (model 3.5)
07
33
Crystal Palacev Ipswich Town
SAT 12 SEP · 15:00
Promoted side involved — thin top-flight data, lower confidence.
C Palace 1.78 xG · 4.18 cnr · 1.56 yc
Ipswich 1.28 xG · 3.9 cnr · 1.83 yc
Bet builder legs
Over 1.5 match goals Both teams to score Over 8.5 match corners (model 8.0) Over 2.5 total cards (model 3.5)
08
31
Tottenham Hotspurv Everton
SAT 12 SEP · 17:30
Red-card watch: both sides among the most-carded last season.
Spurs 0.84 xG · 5.5 cnr · 2.19 yc
Everton 1.37 xG · 4.42 cnr · 1.86 yc
Bet builder legs
Under 3.5 match goals Over 9.5 match corners (model 10.0) Over 3.5 total cards (model 4.0) A red card shown (both sides card-heavy last season)
09
25
Aston Villav Nottingham Forest
SAT 12 SEP · 15:00
Aston Villa 0.99 xG · 5.24 cnr · 1.71 yc
Nottm Forest 0.99 xG · 5.21 cnr · 1.67 yc
Bet builder legs
Under 3.5 match goals Over 9.5 match corners (model 10.5) Over 2.5 total cards (model 3.5)
10
17
Sunderlandv Arsenal
SAT 12 SEP · 20:00
Sunderland 0.5 xG · 3.63 cnr · 2.01 yc
Arsenal 1.46 xG · 5.68 cnr · 1.34 yc
Bet builder legs
Under 3.5 match goals Over 8.5 match corners (model 9.5) Over 2.5 total cards (model 3.5)
Champions League — midweek
14 games · strongest first
Model → suggested over / under pick, same idea as the
weekend sheet — but built from cross-league data, so treat it as a
steer, not a shout .
VfB Stuttgart v Viking FK WED 09 SEP · 17:45 · juice 81/100
Goals Over 2.5 model 4.5 + BTTS Corners Over 10.5 model 13.5 Cards Over 3.5 model 3.5
Barcelona v Feyenoord Rotterdam WED 09 SEP · 17:45 · juice 67/100
Goals Over 2.5 model 4.0 + BTTS Corners Over 10.5 model 12.5 Cards Over 2.5 model 2.5 red watch
Bayern Munich v Bodo/Glimt THU 10 SEP · 20:00 · juice 65/100
Goals Over 2.5 model 4.0 + BTTS Corners Over 10.5 model 17.5 Cards Under 2.5 model 2.5
Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal TUE 08 SEP · 20:00 · juice 64/100
Goals Over 2.5 model 3.5 + BTTS Corners Over 9.5 model 10.0 Cards Over 3.5 model 4.0
Real Madrid v Internazionale TUE 08 SEP · 20:00 · juice 56/100
Goals Over 1.5 model 3.0 + BTTS Corners Over 10.5 model 14.0 Cards Over 2.5 model 3.5 red watch
Sporting CP v Galatasaray WED 09 SEP · 20:00 · juice 55/100
Goals Over 2.5 model 3.5 + BTTS Corners Over 8.5 model 9.5 Cards Over 3.5 model 4.0 red watch
Fenerbahce v AS Roma THU 10 SEP · 17:45 · juice 54/100
Goals Over 1.5 model 2.5 + BTTS Corners Over 10.5 model 12.0 Cards Over 3.5 model 4.0
Como v RB Leipzig THU 10 SEP · 20:00 · juice 53/100
Goals Over 1.5 model 3.0 + BTTS Corners Over 10.5 model 14.0 Cards Over 2.5 model 3.0
Club Brugge v Aston Villa TUE 08 SEP · 17:45 · juice 51/100
Goals Over 2.5 model 3.5 Corners Over 9.5 model 10.5 Cards Over 2.5 model 3.0
Liverpool v Atlético Madrid WED 09 SEP · 20:00 · juice 48/100
Goals Over 2.5 model 3.0 + BTTS Corners Over 8.5 model 9.0 Cards Over 3.5 model 4.0 red watch
FC Porto v Manchester City TUE 08 SEP · 20:00 · juice 37/100
Goals Under 3.5 model 2.0 Corners Over 10.5 model 13.0 Cards Over 2.5 model 3.5
AEK Athens v LASK Linz TUE 08 SEP · 17:45 · juice 35/100
Goals Under 3.5 model 2.0 Corners Over 9.5 model 10.5 Cards Over 3.5 model 4.0
Lille v Real Betis TUE 08 SEP · 20:00 · juice 28/100
Goals Under 3.5 model 2.5 + BTTS Corners Under 8.5 model 6.5 Cards Over 3.5 model 4.0 red watch
Napoli v Arsenal WED 09 SEP · 20:00 · juice 9/100
Goals Under 3.5 model 2.0 Corners Over 9.5 model 9.5 Cards Over 2.5 model 2.5
Why to trust this less than the Premier League sheet
Home / away goal splits can look skewed — weaker-league defences read as elite, so the away side's goals get squeezed — trust the match total , not the split.Corners are a rough guess — there is no prior-season corner data, so they come from a small current-season sample and swing hard.One scoring average across every league — and UCL referees card more than domestic games, so the card picks lean a little high.
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Leaderboard
This weekend
All season
End-of-season prizes
🥇 1st — 1,000,000 SSB
🥈 2nd — 500,000 SSB
🥉 3rd — 250,000 SSB
Weekly: 1 point per correct pick · 100 SSB per point · paid every Thursday. Picks lock at kickoff.
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Payout sheet
Season points × 100 = SSB owed. Send from your wallet.
Not advice. None of this is financial or betting advice. It's a
statistical model with known blind spots, for entertainment and your own
research only — any bet you place is your decision and your risk.
Reading the sheet. Figures blend the 2025/26 full season with this
season so far — the new-season weight climbs to 50% by gameweek 10. Goals come
from an attack-versus-defence strength model with a home tilt; corners sum each
side's 2025/26 corners-taken rate; cards sum each side's yellow-card rate. Ticks on
each meter mark the common betting lines. The juice score (0–100) weights goals 40,
cards 35, corners 25.
Last weekend. The band takes the model's
suggested over / under pick for each metric and checks whether it landed
against what actually happened (goals from the final score; corners and cards
from ESPN's match stats, which can lag a few hours). Picks are recomputed from
current data, so it's a close guide to — not an exact replay of — what the
sheet showed before kickoff.
Not modelled: the referee (the biggest card
swing), team news, form momentum, weather, or the odds themselves. Check live
prices in your bookmaker's app and only back legs you rate yourself.
18+. Bet responsibly — stake only what you can
afford to lose. Support at GambleAware.org .
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