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Weekend Coupon

Premier LeagueSAT 12 SEP – MON 14 SEP 2026Built Tue 08 Sep 2026, 16:30Ranked by juice score

Games run 1 to 10, strongest first. #1 is where the model is most confident the goals, corners and cards will land; #10 is the one to be wary of. The number next to each game (0–100) is that confidence. A guide, not a guarantee — always check the odds yourself.

Last weekend — did our picks land?

18/30 landed

Each metric shows the suggested pick (over / under + line) → the actual number in the match. ✓ = the pick won.

FRI 04 SEP Ipswich 0–2 Liverpool
Goals Over 2.5 → 2Corners Over 9.5 → 7Cards Over 3.5 → 4
SAT 05 SEP Newcastle 2–2 Bournemouth
Goals Over 2.5 → 4Corners Over 10.5 → 7Cards Under 4.5 → 6
SAT 05 SEP Brentford 1–1 Sunderland
Goals Under 3.5 → 2Corners Under 8.5 → 7Cards Over 3.5 → 5
SAT 05 SEP Brighton 1–1 Leeds
Goals Over 1.5 → 2Corners Over 8.5 → 13Cards Over 3.5 → 6
SAT 05 SEP Fulham 2–3 C Palace
Goals Over 1.5 → 5Corners Over 8.5 → 8Cards Over 2.5 → 0
SAT 05 SEP Man City 1–0 Coventry
Goals Over 2.5 → 1Corners Over 9.5 → 9Cards Over 2.5 → 3
SAT 05 SEP Nottm Forest 0–0 Spurs
Goals Under 3.5 → 0Corners Over 9.5 → 12Cards Over 3.5 → 4
SAT 05 SEP Hull 0–0 Aston Villa
Goals Under 3.5 → 0Corners Over 8.5 → 7Cards Over 3.5 → 2
SUN 06 SEP Everton 2–2 Man United
Goals Over 2.5 → 4Corners Over 8.5 → 7Cards Over 2.5 → 6
SUN 06 SEP Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea
Goals Over 2.5 → 3Corners Over 10.5 → 8Cards Over 3.5 → 6

Model accuracy — season to date

67%

60 of 90 suggested goal / corner / card picks landed. Bars below: each metric, then week by week.

Goals
93%
Corners
47%
Cards
60%
212804
01 65

LiverpoolvFulham

SAT 12 SEP · 15:00TOP PICK
Goals3.5
2.53.5
Corners11.0
9.510.511.5
Cards4.0
3.54.5
Liverpool 2.24 xG · 6.11 cnr · 2.05 yc
Fulham 1.13 xG · 4.92 cnr · 1.80 yc

Bet builder legs

  • Over 2.5 match goals
  • Both teams to score
  • Over 10.5 match corners (model 11.0)
  • Over 3.5 total cards (model 4.0)
02 59

Manchester UnitedvManchester City

SUN 13 SEP · 16:30
Goals3.5
2.53.5
Corners11.0
9.510.511.5
Cards3.5
3.54.5
Man United 1.29 xG · 4.76 cnr · 1.64 yc
Man City 2.09 xG · 6.42 cnr · 1.67 yc

Bet builder legs

  • Over 2.5 match goals
  • Both teams to score
  • Over 10.5 match corners (model 11.0)
  • Over 2.5 total cards (model 3.5)
03 57

ChelseavHull City

SAT 12 SEP · 15:00

Promoted side involved — thin top-flight data, lower confidence.

Red-card watch: both sides among the most-carded last season.

Goals3.0
2.53.5
Corners10.0
9.510.511.5
Cards4.5
3.54.5
Chelsea 1.72 xG · 5.95 cnr · 2.42 yc
Hull 1.11 xG · 4.1 cnr · 2.23 yc

Bet builder legs

  • Over 1.5 match goals
  • Both teams to score
  • Over 9.5 match corners (model 10.0)
  • Over 4.5 total cards (model 4.5)
  • A red card shown (both sides card-heavy last season)
04 56

AFC BournemouthvBrentford

SAT 12 SEP · 15:00
Goals3.0
2.53.5
Corners10.5
9.510.511.5
Cards4.5
3.54.5
Bournemouth 1.32 xG · 5.58 cnr · 2.44 yc
Brentford 1.47 xG · 4.79 cnr · 2.07 yc

Bet builder legs

  • Over 1.5 match goals
  • Both teams to score
  • Over 9.5 match corners (model 10.5)
  • Over 4.5 total cards (model 4.5)
05 41

Coventry CityvBrighton & Hove Albion

SUN 13 SEP · 14:00

Promoted side involved — thin top-flight data, lower confidence.

Goals2.5
2.53.5
Corners9.0
9.510.511.5
Cards4.0
3.54.5
Coventry 0.77 xG · 4.3 cnr · 1.83 yc
Brighton 1.92 xG · 4.87 cnr · 2.38 yc

Bet builder legs

  • Over 1.5 match goals
  • Over 8.5 match corners (model 9.0)
  • Over 3.5 total cards (model 4.0)
06 38

Leeds UnitedvNewcastle United

MON 14 SEP · 20:00
Goals2.5
2.53.5
Corners10.5
9.510.511.5
Cards3.5
3.54.5
Leeds 1.32 xG · 4.42 cnr · 1.54 yc
Newcastle 1.26 xG · 6.05 cnr · 2.06 yc

Bet builder legs

  • Over 1.5 match goals
  • Over 9.5 match corners (model 10.5)
  • Over 3.5 total cards (model 3.5)
07 33

Crystal PalacevIpswich Town

SAT 12 SEP · 15:00

Promoted side involved — thin top-flight data, lower confidence.

Goals3.0
2.53.5
Corners8.0
9.510.511.5
Cards3.5
3.54.5
C Palace 1.78 xG · 4.18 cnr · 1.56 yc
Ipswich 1.28 xG · 3.9 cnr · 1.83 yc

Bet builder legs

  • Over 1.5 match goals
  • Both teams to score
  • Over 8.5 match corners (model 8.0)
  • Over 2.5 total cards (model 3.5)
08 31

Tottenham HotspurvEverton

SAT 12 SEP · 17:30

Red-card watch: both sides among the most-carded last season.

Goals2.0
2.53.5
Corners10.0
9.510.511.5
Cards4.0
3.54.5
Spurs 0.84 xG · 5.5 cnr · 2.19 yc
Everton 1.37 xG · 4.42 cnr · 1.86 yc

Bet builder legs

  • Under 3.5 match goals
  • Over 9.5 match corners (model 10.0)
  • Over 3.5 total cards (model 4.0)
  • A red card shown (both sides card-heavy last season)
09 25

Aston VillavNottingham Forest

SAT 12 SEP · 15:00
Goals2.0
2.53.5
Corners10.5
9.510.511.5
Cards3.5
3.54.5
Aston Villa 0.99 xG · 5.24 cnr · 1.71 yc
Nottm Forest 0.99 xG · 5.21 cnr · 1.67 yc

Bet builder legs

  • Under 3.5 match goals
  • Over 9.5 match corners (model 10.5)
  • Over 2.5 total cards (model 3.5)
10 17

SunderlandvArsenal

SAT 12 SEP · 20:00
Goals2.0
2.53.5
Corners9.5
9.510.511.5
Cards3.5
3.54.5
Sunderland 0.5 xG · 3.63 cnr · 2.01 yc
Arsenal 1.46 xG · 5.68 cnr · 1.34 yc

Bet builder legs

  • Under 3.5 match goals
  • Over 8.5 match corners (model 9.5)
  • Over 2.5 total cards (model 3.5)

Champions League — midweek

14 games · strongest first

Model → suggested over / under pick, same idea as the weekend sheet — but built from cross-league data, so treat it as a steer, not a shout.

VfB Stuttgart v Viking FKWED 09 SEP · 17:45 · juice 81/100
Goals Over 2.5 model 4.5 + BTTSCorners Over 10.5 model 13.5Cards Over 3.5 model 3.5
Barcelona v Feyenoord RotterdamWED 09 SEP · 17:45 · juice 67/100
Goals Over 2.5 model 4.0 + BTTSCorners Over 10.5 model 12.5Cards Over 2.5 model 2.5 red watch
Bayern Munich v Bodo/GlimtTHU 10 SEP · 20:00 · juice 65/100
Goals Over 2.5 model 4.0 + BTTSCorners Over 10.5 model 17.5Cards Under 2.5 model 2.5
Borussia Dortmund v VillarrealTUE 08 SEP · 20:00 · juice 64/100
Goals Over 2.5 model 3.5 + BTTSCorners Over 9.5 model 10.0Cards Over 3.5 model 4.0
Real Madrid v InternazionaleTUE 08 SEP · 20:00 · juice 56/100
Goals Over 1.5 model 3.0 + BTTSCorners Over 10.5 model 14.0Cards Over 2.5 model 3.5 red watch
Sporting CP v GalatasarayWED 09 SEP · 20:00 · juice 55/100
Goals Over 2.5 model 3.5 + BTTSCorners Over 8.5 model 9.5Cards Over 3.5 model 4.0 red watch
Fenerbahce v AS RomaTHU 10 SEP · 17:45 · juice 54/100
Goals Over 1.5 model 2.5 + BTTSCorners Over 10.5 model 12.0Cards Over 3.5 model 4.0
Como v RB LeipzigTHU 10 SEP · 20:00 · juice 53/100
Goals Over 1.5 model 3.0 + BTTSCorners Over 10.5 model 14.0Cards Over 2.5 model 3.0
Club Brugge v Aston VillaTUE 08 SEP · 17:45 · juice 51/100
Goals Over 2.5 model 3.5Corners Over 9.5 model 10.5Cards Over 2.5 model 3.0
Liverpool v Atlético MadridWED 09 SEP · 20:00 · juice 48/100
Goals Over 2.5 model 3.0 + BTTSCorners Over 8.5 model 9.0Cards Over 3.5 model 4.0 red watch
FC Porto v Manchester CityTUE 08 SEP · 20:00 · juice 37/100
Goals Under 3.5 model 2.0Corners Over 10.5 model 13.0Cards Over 2.5 model 3.5
AEK Athens v LASK LinzTUE 08 SEP · 17:45 · juice 35/100
Goals Under 3.5 model 2.0Corners Over 9.5 model 10.5Cards Over 3.5 model 4.0
Lille v Real BetisTUE 08 SEP · 20:00 · juice 28/100
Goals Under 3.5 model 2.5 + BTTSCorners Under 8.5 model 6.5Cards Over 3.5 model 4.0 red watch
Napoli v ArsenalWED 09 SEP · 20:00 · juice 9/100
Goals Under 3.5 model 2.0Corners Over 9.5 model 9.5Cards Over 2.5 model 2.5
Why to trust this less than the Premier League sheet
  • Home / away goal splits can look skewed — weaker-league defences read as elite, so the away side's goals get squeezed — trust the match total, not the split.
  • Corners are a rough guess — there is no prior-season corner data, so they come from a small current-season sample and swing hard.
  • One scoring average across every league — and UCL referees card more than domestic games, so the card picks lean a little high.

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