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Games run 1 to 10, strongest first . #1 is where the model is most confident the goals, corners and cards will land; #10 is the one to be wary of. The number next to each game (0–100) is that confidence. A guide, not a guarantee — always check the odds yourself.
Last weekend — how the model did
16/30 within range
Each metric shows model prediction → actual
result (difference) . ✓ = model landed within range
(±1.0 goals, ±2.5 corners, ±1.5 cards).
FRI 04 SEP
Ipswich 0–2 Liverpool
Goals 3.5 → 2 -1.5 Corners 10.0 → 7 -3 Cards 4.0 → 4 0
SAT 05 SEP
Newcastle 2–2 Bournemouth
Goals 3.0 → 4 +1 Corners 11.5 → 7 -4.5 Cards 4.5 → 6 +1.5
SAT 05 SEP
Brentford 1–1 Sunderland
Goals 2.0 → 2 0 Corners 8.5 → 7 -1.5 Cards 4.0 → 5 +1
SAT 05 SEP
Brighton 1–1 Leeds
Goals 2.5 → 2 -0.5 Corners 9.5 → 13 +3.5 Cards 4.0 → 6 +2
SAT 05 SEP
Fulham 2–3 C Palace
Goals 3.0 → 5 +2 Corners 9.0 → 8 -1 Cards 3.5 → 0 -3.5
SAT 05 SEP
Man City 1–0 Coventry
Goals 3.0 → 1 -2 Corners 10.5 → 9 -1.5 Cards 3.5 → 3 -0.5
SAT 05 SEP
Nottm Forest 0–0 Spurs
Goals 2.0 → 0 -2 Corners 10.5 → 12 +1.5 Cards 4.0 → 4 0
SAT 05 SEP
Hull 0–0 Aston Villa
Goals 2.0 → 0 -2 Corners 9.5 → 7 -2.5 Cards 4.0 → 2 -2
SUN 06 SEP
Everton 2–2 Man United
Goals 3.0 → 4 +1 Corners 9.0 → 7 -2 Cards 3.5 → 6 +2.5
SUN 06 SEP
Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea
Goals 3.0 → 3 0 Corners 11.5 → 8 -3.5 Cards 4.0 → 6 +2
Model accuracy — season to date
61%
55 of 90 goal / corner / card
calls landed within range. Bars below: each metric, then week by week.
21 28 04
MOST GOALS
Top pick
Man United v Man City
over 2.5
MOST CORNERS
Top pick
Man United v Man City
over 10.5
MOST CARDS
Top pick
Chelsea v Hull
over 4.5
Order: strongest first
01
65
Liverpoolv Fulham
SAT 12 SEP · 15:00TOP PICK
Liverpool 2.24 xG · 6.11 cnr · 2.05 yc
Fulham 1.13 xG · 4.92 cnr · 1.80 yc
Bet builder legs
Over 2.5 match goals Both teams to score Over 10.5 match corners (model 11.0) Over 3.5 total cards (model 4.0)
02
59
Manchester Unitedv Manchester City
SUN 13 SEP · 16:30
Man United 1.29 xG · 4.76 cnr · 1.64 yc
Man City 2.09 xG · 6.42 cnr · 1.67 yc
Bet builder legs
Over 2.5 match goals Both teams to score Over 10.5 match corners (model 11.0) Over 2.5 total cards (model 3.5)
03
57
Chelseav Hull City
SAT 12 SEP · 15:00
Promoted side involved — thin top-flight data, lower confidence.
Red-card watch: both sides among the most-carded last season.
Chelsea 1.72 xG · 5.95 cnr · 2.42 yc
Hull 1.11 xG · 4.1 cnr · 2.23 yc
Bet builder legs
Over 1.5 match goals Both teams to score Over 9.5 match corners (model 10.0) Over 4.5 total cards (model 4.5) A red card shown (both sides card-heavy last season)
04
56
AFC Bournemouthv Brentford
SAT 12 SEP · 15:00
Bournemouth 1.32 xG · 5.58 cnr · 2.44 yc
Brentford 1.47 xG · 4.79 cnr · 2.07 yc
Bet builder legs
Over 1.5 match goals Both teams to score Over 9.5 match corners (model 10.5) Over 4.5 total cards (model 4.5)
05
41
Coventry Cityv Brighton & Hove Albion
SUN 13 SEP · 14:00
Promoted side involved — thin top-flight data, lower confidence.
Coventry 0.77 xG · 4.3 cnr · 1.83 yc
Brighton 1.92 xG · 4.87 cnr · 2.38 yc
Bet builder legs
Over 1.5 match goals Over 8.5 match corners (model 9.0) Over 3.5 total cards (model 4.0)
06
38
Leeds Unitedv Newcastle United
MON 14 SEP · 20:00
Leeds 1.32 xG · 4.42 cnr · 1.54 yc
Newcastle 1.26 xG · 6.05 cnr · 2.06 yc
Bet builder legs
Over 1.5 match goals Over 9.5 match corners (model 10.5) Over 3.5 total cards (model 3.5)
07
33
Crystal Palacev Ipswich Town
SAT 12 SEP · 15:00
Promoted side involved — thin top-flight data, lower confidence.
C Palace 1.78 xG · 4.18 cnr · 1.56 yc
Ipswich 1.28 xG · 3.9 cnr · 1.83 yc
Bet builder legs
Over 1.5 match goals Both teams to score Over 8.5 match corners (model 8.0) Over 2.5 total cards (model 3.5)
08
31
Tottenham Hotspurv Everton
SAT 12 SEP · 17:30
Red-card watch: both sides among the most-carded last season.
Spurs 0.84 xG · 5.5 cnr · 2.19 yc
Everton 1.37 xG · 4.42 cnr · 1.86 yc
Bet builder legs
Under 3.5 match goals Over 9.5 match corners (model 10.0) Over 3.5 total cards (model 4.0) A red card shown (both sides card-heavy last season)
09
25
Aston Villav Nottingham Forest
SAT 12 SEP · 15:00
Aston Villa 0.99 xG · 5.24 cnr · 1.71 yc
Nottm Forest 0.99 xG · 5.21 cnr · 1.67 yc
Bet builder legs
Under 3.5 match goals Over 9.5 match corners (model 10.5) Over 2.5 total cards (model 3.5)
10
17
Sunderlandv Arsenal
SAT 12 SEP · 20:00
Sunderland 0.5 xG · 3.63 cnr · 2.01 yc
Arsenal 1.46 xG · 5.68 cnr · 1.34 yc
Bet builder legs
Under 3.5 match goals Over 8.5 match corners (model 9.5) Over 2.5 total cards (model 3.5)
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Leaderboard
This weekend
All season
End-of-season prizes
🥇 1st — 1,000,000 SSB
🥈 2nd — 500,000 SSB
🥉 3rd — 250,000 SSB
Weekly: 1 point per correct pick · 100 SSB per point · paid every Thursday. Picks lock at kickoff.
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Payout sheet
Season points × 100 = SSB owed. Send from your wallet.
Not advice. None of this is financial or betting advice. It's a
statistical model with known blind spots, for entertainment and your own
research only — any bet you place is your decision and your risk.
Reading the sheet. Figures blend the 2025/26 full season with this
season so far — the new-season weight climbs to 50% by gameweek 10. Goals come
from an attack-versus-defence strength model with a home tilt; corners sum each
side's 2025/26 corners-taken rate; cards sum each side's yellow-card rate. Ticks on
each meter mark the common betting lines. The juice score (0–100) weights goals 40,
cards 35, corners 25.
Last weekend. The band compares the model's
predicted goals / corners / cards with what actually happened (goals from the
final score; corners and cards from ESPN's match stats, which can lag a few
hours). Predictions are recomputed from current data, so it's a close guide
to — not an exact replay of — what the sheet showed before kickoff.
Not modelled: the referee (the biggest card
swing), team news, form momentum, weather, or the odds themselves. Check live
prices in your bookmaker's app and only back legs you rate yourself.
18+. Bet responsibly — stake only what you can
afford to lose. Support at GambleAware.org .
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